BASSETERRE: Residents of St. Kitts and Nevis can breathe a sigh of relief as Tropical Storm Jerry continues its northwest trajectory, passing well north of the Federation. The tropical storm watch, initially issued as a precautionary measure, has been officially discontinued following the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). However, authorities emphasize that residual rainfall and potential flash flooding remain concerns throughout the day, urging caution on roads and near waterways.
This morning’s updates from the Government of St. Kitts and Nevis and the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) confirm that all schools, early childhood centers, and government offices will operate normally today. This morning’s bulletin from St. Kitts Meteorological Services highlights overcast skies, light showers, and a humid 96% atmosphere at 26°C (80°F), underscoring the storm’s lingering influence.
As of the NHC’s 5AM advisory, Jerry was located at 19.2°N, 62.5°W—approximately 80 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands — with sustained winds of 50 mph and moving northwest at 17 mph. The storm is expected to turn north tonight, gradually strengthening into a possible hurricane over the weekend as it moves into open Atlantic waters, away from land.
Local forecasts predict south-southeast winds of 23-30 mph, gusting to 32 mph, and seas of 4-7 feet with 5-foot swells. A high surf advisory persists until 2:00 PM, urging caution along coasts where rip currents pose risks. Today, expect cloudy conditions with a 60% chance of thunderstorms and 0.5-1 inch of rain, escalating to 70% showers and 40% thunderstorms tonight.
Jerry, the tenth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, formed earlier this week in the central Atlantic and rapidly approached the Leeward Islands. Initial forecasts raised alarms for potential tropical storm conditions, including gusty winds up to 65 mph and heavy rainfall, prompting watches across several islands, including St. Kitts and Nevis. However, upper-level wind shear has kept the system disorganized, with much of its convective activity—thunderstorms and rain—pushed southeast of the center.
The NHC projects little change in strength today, but conditions may favor gradual intensification as shear decreases and the storm slows its forward speed. Tropical storm-force winds extend up to 185 miles east of the center, but St. Kitts and Nevis lie outside this radius.
Nearby islands like St. Barthelemy, St. Martin, and Guadeloupe remain under warnings, where conditions could persist for several hours. Swells from Jerry are already affecting the Leeward and Windward Islands, potentially causing life-threatening surf and rip currents that could spread westward to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
While the direct threat has passed, Jerry’s outer bands have brought intermittent showers to St. Kitts and Nevis since yesterday. NEMA’s public announcement highlights the risk of continued rainfall, advising residents to avoid crossing heavily flowing waterways and for motorists to exercise caution due to possible water accumulation on roads. Flash flooding remains a primary concern. Rainfall totals of 1 to 4 inches are possible across portions of the Leeward Islands today, leading to localized flooding in low-lying areas.